Foreign Minister, Izvolsky, declared that, with that aim in view, he was acting in close concert with France, Great Britain, and Italy.  He urged Bulgaria, Servia, and Montenegro to hold closely together for the defence of their common interests:  “Our aim must be to bring them together and to combine them with Turkey in a common ideal of defence of their national and economic development.”  A cordial union between the Slav States and Turkey now seems a fantastic notion; but it was possible then, under pressure of the Austro-German menace, which the Young Turks were actively resisting.

[Footnote 525:  Tittoni, Italy’s Foreign and Colonial Policy (English translation, p. 128).  Tittoni denied that the Triple Alliance empowered Italy to demand “compensation” if Austria expanded in the Balkans.  But the Triple Alliance Treaty, as renewed in 1912, included such a clause, No.  VII.]

During the early part of 1909 a general war seemed imminent; for Slavonic feeling was violently excited in Russia and Servia.  But, hostilities being impossible in winter, passions had time to cool.  It soon became evident that those States could not make head against Austria and Germany.  Moreover, the Franco-Russian alliance did not bind France to act with Russia unless the latter were definitely attacked; and France was weakened by the widespread strikes of 1907-8 and the vehement anti-militarist agitation already described.  Further, Italy was distracted by the earthquake at Messina, and armed intervention was not to be expected from the Campbell-Bannerman Ministry.  Bulgaria and Roumania were pro-Austrian.  Turkey alone could not hope to reconquer Bosnia, and a Turco-Serb-Russian league was beyond the range of practical politics.  These material considerations decided the issue of events.  Towards the close of March, Kaiser William, the hitherto silent backer of Austria, ended the crisis by sending to his ambassador at Petrograd an autograph letter, the effect of which upon the Tsar was decisive.  Russia gave way, and dissociated herself from France, England, and Italy.  In consideration of an indemnity of L2,200,000 from Austria, Turkey recognised the annexation.  Consequently no Conference of the Powers met even to register the fait accompli in Bosnia.  The Germanic Empires had coerced Russia and Servia, despoiled Turkey, and imposed their will on Europe.  Kaiser William characteristically asserted that it was his apparition “in shining armour” by the side of Austria which decided the issue of events.  Equally decisive, perhaps, was Germany’s formidable shipbuilding in 1908-9, namely, four Dreadnoughts to England’s two, a fact which explains this statement of Buelow:  “When at last, during the Bosnian crisis, the sky of international politics cleared, when German power on the Continent burst its encompassing bonds, we had already got beyond the stage of preparation in the construction of our fleet[526].”

[Footnote 526:  Buelow, Imperial Germany, p. 99.]