It is easy to be wise after the event, but, in looking back upon the expedition as a whole, and the tragedy which was to come, mainly from the unforeseen cold of the autumn on the Barrier (such as minus forties in February) it seems that we might have grasped that these temperatures were lower than might have been expected in the middle of March quite near the open sea.  Even if this had occurred to any one, and I do not think that it did, I doubt whether the next step of reasoning would have followed, namely, the possibility that the interior of the Barrier would, as actually happened, prove to be much colder than was expected at this date.  On the contrary I several times heard Scott mention the possibility of the Polar Party not returning until April.  At the same time it must be realized that pony transport to the foot of the Beardmore Glacier made a late start inevitable, for the blizzards our ponies had already suffered proved that spring weather on the Barrier would be intolerable to them.  As a matter of fact, Scott says in his Message to the Public, “no one in the world would have expected the temperature and surfaces which we encountered at this time of the year.”

We returned to find everything at Hut Point, including the hut, covered with frozen spray.  This was the result of a blizzard of which we only felt the tail end on the Barrier.  Scott wrote:  “The sea was breaking constantly and heavily on the ice foot.  The spray carried right over the Point—­covering all things and raining on the roof of the hut.  Poor Vince’s cross, some 30 feet above the water, was enveloped in it.  Of course the dogs had a very poor time, and we went and released two or three, getting covered in spray during the operation—­our wind clothes very wet.  This is the third gale from the South since our arrival here (i.e. in 21/2 weeks).  Any one of these would have rendered the Bay impossible for a ship, and, therefore, it is extraordinary that we should have entirely escaped such a blow when the Discovery was in it in 1902."[129]

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It is difficult to see long distances across open water at this time of year because the comparatively warm water throws up into the air a fog, known as frost-smoke.  If there is a wind this smoke is carried over the surface of the sea, but if calm the smoke rises and forms a dense curtain.  Standing on Arrival Heights, which form the nail of the finger-like Peninsula on which we now lived, we could see the four islands which lie near Cape Evans, and a black smudge in the face of the glaciers which descend from Erebus, which we knew to be the face of the steep slope above Cape Evans, afterwards named The Ramp.  But, for the present, our comfortable hut might have been thousands of miles away for all the good it was to us.  As soon as the wind fell calm the sea was covered by a thin layer of ice, in twenty-four hours it might be four or five inches thick, but as yet it never proved strong enough to resist the next blizzard.  In March the ice to the south was safe; there was appearance of ice in the two bays at the foot of Erebus’ slopes in the beginning of April.