to declare war against Germany without having definitely settled our policy towards China has no real connection with our future negotiations with China or affect the political condition in the Far East.  Consequently all intelligent Japanese, of every walk of life throughout the land, are very deeply concerned about the matter.

Our Imperial Government should now definitely change our dependent foreign policy which is being directed by others into an independent foreign policy which shall direct others, proclaiming the same with solemn sincerity to the world and carrying it out with determination.  If we do so, even the gods and spirits will give way.  These are important points in our policy towards China and the result depends on how we carry them out.  Can our authorities firmly make up their mind to solve this Chinese Question by the actual carrying out of this fundamental principle?  If they show irresolution while we have this heaven-conferred chance and merely depend on the good will of the other Powers, we shall eventually have greater pressure to be brought against the Far East after the European War is over, when the present equilibrium will be destroyed.  That day will then be too late for us to repent of our folly.  We are therefore impelled by force of circumstances to urge our authorities to a quicker sense of the situation and to come to a determination.

The first point which leaps out of this extraordinarily frank disquisition is that the origin of the Twenty-one Demands is at last disclosed.  A perusal of the ten articles forming the basis of the Defensive alliance proposed by the Black Dragon Society, allows us to understand everything that occurred in Peking in the spring of 1915.  As far back as November, 1914, it was generally rumoured in Peking that Japan had a surprise of an extraordinary nature in her diplomatic archives, and that it would be merely a matter of weeks before it was sprung.  Comparing this elaborate memorandum of the Black Dragon Society with the original text of the Twenty-one Demands it is plain that the proposed plan, having been handed to Viscount Kato, had to be passed through the diplomatic filters again and again until all gritty matter had been removed, and an appearance of innocuousness given to it.  It is for this reason that the defensive alliance finally emerges as five compact little “groups” of demands, with the vital things directly affecting Chinese sovereignty labelled desiderata, so that Japanese ambassadors abroad could leave very warm assurances at every Foreign Office that there was nothing in what Japan desired which in any way conflicted with the Treaty rights of the Powers in China.  The air of mystery which surrounded the whole business from the 18th January to the 7th May—­the day of the ultimatum—­was due to the fact that Japan attempted to translate the conspiracy into terms of ordinary intercourse, only to find that in spite of the “filtering” the atmosphere of plotting could not be shaken off or the political threat adequately hidden.  There is an arresting piece of psychology in this.