our Minister regarding her submarine policy we can serve her with an ultimatum demanding that the submarine policy be cancelled within twenty-four hours.  If Austria refuses, China may sever diplomatic relations and declare war at the same time immediately upon the expiry of the twenty-four hour limit.

“In conclusion I wish to say that whenever a policy is adopted we should carry out the complete scheme.  If we should hesitate in the middle and become afraid to go ahead we will soon find ourselves in an embarrassing position.  The Government and Parliament should therefore stir up courage and boldly make the decision and take the step.”

Unanswerable as seem these arguments to the Western mind, they were by no means so to the mass of Chinese who are always fearful lest some sudden reshuffling in the relationships existing between foreign Powers exposes them to new and greater calamities.  This Chinese viewpoint, with its ignorance of basic considerations, is well-illustrated by the Second Memorandum, which follows.  Written by the famous reformer of 1898 Kang Yu-wei, it demonstrates how greatly the revolutionists of 1911 are in advance of a school which was the vogue less than twenty years ago and which is completely out of touch with the thought which the war has made world-wide.  Nevertheless the line of argument which characterizes this utterance is still a political factor in China and must be understood.

    MEMORANDUM

...  “The breach between the United States and Germany is no concern of ours.  But the Government suddenly severed diplomatic relations with Germany and is now contemplating entry into the war.  This is to advance beyond the action of the United States which continues to observe neutrality.  And if we analyse the public opinion of the country, we find that all peoples—­high and low, well-informed and ignorant—­betray great alarm when informed of the rupture and the proposal to declare war on Germany, fearing that such a development may cause grave peril to the country.  This war-policy is being urged by a handful of politicians, including a few members of Parliament and several party men with the view of creating a diplomatic situation to serve their political ends and to reap great profits.

“Their arguments are that China—­by siding with the Entente—­may obtain large loans, the revision of the Customs Tariff and the suspension of the Boxer indemnity to Germany, as well as the recovery of the German concessions, mining and railroad rights and the seizure of German commerce.  Pray, how large is Germany’s share of the Boxer indemnity?  Seeing that German commerce is protected by international law, will China be able to seize it; and does she not know that the Kaiser may in the future exact restitution?

    PERILS OF WAR