for the presidency, believing that we do not possess a suitable presidential successor.  The vital question of the day setting aside all paper talk, is whether or not China has a suitable man to succeed President Yuan Shih-kai.  Whether or not the constitutional compact can be actually carried out in future I do not know; but I do know that that instrument will eventually become ineffective.

    Mr. Ko:  I desire a true picture of the chaos which you have hinted
    will ensue in this country.  Can you tell me anything along that
    line?

Mr. Hu:  In a time of confusion, the soldiers play the most important part, virtuous and experienced and learned statesmen being unable to cope with the situation.  The only qualification which a leader at such a time needs to possess is the control of the military, and the ability to suppress Parliament.  Should such a person be made the president, he cannot long hold his enviable post in view of the fact that he cannot possess sufficient influence to control the troops of the whole country.  The generals of equal rank and standing will not obey each other, while the soldiers and politicians, seeing a chance in these differences for their advancement, will stir up their feelings and incite one another to fight.  They will fight hard among themselves.  The rebels, who are now exiles in foreign lands, taking advantage of the chaos in China, will return in very little time to perpetrate the worst crimes known in human history.  The royalists who are in retirement will likewise come out to fish in muddy waters.  Persons who have the qualifications of leaders will be used as tools to fight for the self-aggrandizement of those who use them.  I do not wish to mention names, but I can safely predict that more than ten different parties will arise at the psychological moment.  Men who will never be satisfied until they become president, and those who know they cannot get the presidency but who are unwilling to serve others, will come out one after another.  Confusion and disturbance will follow with great rapidity.  Then foreign countries which have entertained wild ambitions, availing themselves of the distressful situation in China will stir up ill-feelings among these parties and so increase the disturbances.  When the proper time comes, various countries, unwilling to let a single country enjoy the privilege of controlling China, will resort to armed intervention.  In consequence the eastern problem will end in a rupture of the international peace.  Whether China will be turned at that time into a battleground for the Chinese people or for the foreign Powers I cannot tell you.  It is too dreadful to think of the future which is enshrouded in a veil of mystery.  However, I can tell you that the result of this awful turmoil will be either the slicing of China like a melon or the suppression of internal trouble with foreign assistance which will lead to dismemberment.  As to the second result some