the actions of Japan in that war, and to see what system the White Powers would have established if Japan had not existed.  Since that time, however, Japan has been the dominant foreign influence in Chinese affairs.  It is therefore necessary to understand how the Japanese became what they are:  what sort of nation they were before the West destroyed their isolation, and what influence the West has had upon them.  Lack of understanding of Japan has made people in England blind to Japan’s aims in China, and unable to apprehend the meaning of what Japan has done.

Political considerations alone, however, will not suffice to explain what is going on in relation to China; economic questions are almost more important.  China is as yet hardly industrialized, and is certainly the most important undeveloped area left in the world.  Whether the resources of China are to be developed by China, by Japan, or by the white races, is a question of enormous importance, affecting not only the whole development of Chinese civilization, but the balance of power in the world, the prospects of peace, the destiny of Russia, and the chances of development towards a better economic system in the advanced nations.

The Washington Conference has partly exhibited and partly concealed the conflict for the possession of China between nations all of which have guaranteed China’s independence and integrity.  Its outcome has made it far more difficult than before to give a hopeful answer as regards Far Eastern problems, and in particular as regards the question:  Can China preserve any shadow of independence without a great development of nationalism and militarism?  I cannot bring myself to advocate nationalism and militarism, yet it is difficult to know what to say to patriotic Chinese who ask how they can be avoided.  So far, I have found only one answer.  The Chinese nation, is the most, patient in the world; it thinks of centuries as other nations think of decades.  It is essentially indestructible, and can afford to wait.  The “civilized” nations of the world, with their blockades, their poison gases, their bombs, submarines, and negro armies, will probably destroy each other within the next hundred years, leaving the stage to those whose pacifism has kept them alive, though poor and powerless.  If China can avoid being goaded into war, her oppressors may wear themselves out in the end, and leave the Chinese free to pursue humane ends, instead of the war and rapine and destruction which all white nations love.  It is perhaps a slender hope for China, and for ourselves it is little better than despair.  But unless the Great Powers learn some moderation and some tolerance, I do not see any better possibility, though I see many that are worse.