It is clear, I think, that political reform in China, when it becomes possible, will have to take the form of a federal constitution, allowing a very large measure of autonomy to the provinces.  The division into provinces is very ancient, and provincial feeling is strong.  After the revolution, a constitution more or less resembling our own was attempted, only with a President instead of a King.  But the successful working of a non-federal constitution requires a homogeneous population without much local feeling, as may be seen from our own experience in Ireland.  Most progressive Chinese, as far as I was able to judge, now favour a federal constitution, leaving to the Central Government not much except armaments, foreign affairs, and customs.  But the difficulty of getting rid of the existing military anarchy is very great.  The Central Government cannot disband the troops, because it cannot find the money to pay them.  It would be necessary to borrow from abroad enough money to pay off the troops and establish them in new jobs.  But it is doubtful whether any Power or Powers would make such a loan without exacting the sacrifice of the last remnants of Chinese independence.  One must therefore hope that somehow the Chinese will find a way of escaping from their troubles without too much foreign assistance.

It is by no means impossible that one of the Tuchuns may become supreme, and may then make friends with the constitutionalists as the best way of consolidating his influence.  China is a country where public opinion has great weight, and where the desire to be thought well of may quite possibly lead a successful militarist into patriotic courses.  There are, at the moment, two Tuchuns who are more important than any of the others.  These are Chang-tso-lin and Wu-Pei-Fu, both of whom have been already mentioned.  Chang-tso-lin is supreme in Manchuria, and strong in Japanese support; he represents all that is most reactionary in China.  Wu-Pei-Fu, on the other hand, is credited with liberal tendencies.  He is an able general; not long ago, nominally at the bidding of Peking, he established his authority on the Yangtze and in Hunan, thereby dealing a blow to the hopes of Canton.  It is not easy to see how he could come to terms with the Canton Government, especially since it has allied itself with Chang-tso-lin, but in the rest of China he might establish his authority and seek to make it permanent by being constitutional (see Appendix).  If so, China might have a breathing-space, and a breathing-space is all that is needed.

The economic life of China, except in the Treaty Ports and in a few regions where there are mines, is still wholly pre-industrial.  Peking has nearly a million inhabitants, and covers an enormous area, owing to the fact that all the houses have only a ground floor and are built round a courtyard.  Yet it has no trams or buses or local trains.  So far as I could see, there are not more than two or three factory chimneys in the whole town.  Apart from begging, trading, thieving and Government employment, people live by handicrafts.  The products are exquisite and the work less monotonous than machine-minding, but the hours are long and the pay infinitesimal.