offer mediation, and this time he is not so much out in his reckoning[761].”  Curiously Mercier had again changed his mind and now thought a proposal of an armistice was the best move, being “particularly anxious that there should be no mention of the word separation,” but of this Russell had, as yet, no inkling[762].  With full approval of the plan as now outlined, Palmerston wrote to Gladstone, September 24, that he and Russell were in complete agreement that an offer of mediation should be made by the three maritime powers, but that “no actual step would be taken without the sanction of the Cabinet[763].”  Two days later Russell explained to Gladstone the exact nature of the proposal[764], but that there was even now no thoroughly worked out agreement on the sequence of steps necessary is shown by Palmerston’s letter to Gladstone of the twenty-fourth, in which is outlined a preliminary proposal of an armistice, cessation of blockade, and negotiation on the basis of separation[765].

Other members of the Cabinet were likewise informed of the proposed overture to France and Russia and soon it was clear that there would be opposition.  Granville had replaced Russell in attendance upon the Queen at Gotha.  He now addressed a long and careful argument to Russell opposing the adventure, as he thought it, summing up his opinion in this wise: 

     “...I doubt, if the war continues long after our recognition
     of the South, whether it will be possible for us to avoid
     drifting into it.”

“...I have come to the conclusion that it is premature to depart from the policy which has hitherto been adopted by you and Lord Palmerston, and which, notwithstanding the strong antipathy to the North, the strong sympathy with the South, and the passionate wish to have cotton, has met with such general approval from Parliament, the press, and the public[766].”

But Granville had little hope his views would prevail.  A few days later he wrote to Lord Stanley of Alderley: 

“I have written to Johnny my reasons for thinking it decidedly premature.  I, however, suspect you will settle to do so!  Pam, Johnny, and Gladstone would be in favour of it; and probably Newcastle.  I do not know about the others.  It appears to me a great mistake[767].”

Opportunely giving added effect to Granville’s letter there now arrived confused accounts from America of the battles about Washington and of a check to the Southern advance.  On September 17 there had been fought the battle of Antietam and two days later Lee, giving up his Maryland campaign, began a retreat through the Shenandoah valley toward the old defensive Southern lines before Richmond.  There was no pursuit, for McClellan, again briefly in command, thought his army too shattered for an advance.  Palmerston had been counting on a great Southern victory and was now doubtful whether the time had come after all for European overtures to the contestants.  October 2 he wrote Russell: