circumstance was still more important.  It was already known through the French press that a sharp conflict had arisen in the Government as to Italian policy and all signs pointed to a reorganization of the Ministry which would exclude Thouvenel.  Under these circumstances Russell could well afford to discount Thouvenel’s opinion.  The extent to which he was ready to go—­much beyond either the offer of mediation, or of armistice evidently in Cowley’s mind—­is shown by a letter to Gladstone, September 26.

“I am inclined to think that October 16 may be soon enough for a Cabinet, if I am free to communicate the views which Palmerston and I entertain to France and Russia in the interval between this time and the middle of next month.  These views had the offer of mediation to both parties in the first place, and in the case of refusal by the North, to recognition of the South.  Mediation on the basis of separation and recognition accompanied by a declaration of neutrality[757].”

The perfected plan, thus outlined, had resulted from a communication to Palmerston of Cowley’s report together with a memorandum, proposed to be sent to Cowley, but again privately[758], addressed to France alone.  Russell here also stated that he had explained his ideas to the Queen.  “She only wishes Austria, Prussia and Russia to be consulted.  I said that should be done, but we must consult France first.”  Also enclosed was a letter from Stuart of September 9, reporting Mercier as just returned from New York and convinced that if advantage were not taken of the present time to do exactly that which was in Russell’s mind, Europe would have to wait for the “complete exhaustion” of the North[759].  Russell was now at home again and the next day Palmerston approved the plans as “excellent”; but he asked whether it would not be well to include Russia in the invitation as a compliment, even though “she might probably decline.”  As to the other European powers the matter could wait for an “after communication.”  Yet that Palmerston still wished to go slowly is shown by a comment on the military situation in America: 

“It is evident that a great conflict is taking place to the north-west of Washington, and its issue must have a great effect on the state of affairs.  If the Federals sustain a great defeat, they may be at once ready for mediation, and the iron should be struck while it is hot.  If, on the other hand, they should have the best of it, we may wait awhile and see what may follow[760]....”

Thus through Palmerston’s caution Russia had been added to France in Russell’s proposed memorandum and the communication to Cowley had not been sent off immediately—­as the letter to Gladstone of September 26 indicates.  But the plan was regarded as so far determined upon that on September 24 Russell requested Lyons not to fix, as yet, upon a date for his departure for America, writing, “M.  Mercier is again looking out for an opportunity to