“I did not express any opinion as to the policy to be eventually pursued by France or England, but I told Monsieur Mercier that I entirely agreed with him in thinking that there was nothing to do at the present moment but to watch events.”

On the day following this interview, Lyons spoke to Seward of Mercier’s trip and was given a very different view of the situation at Richmond.  Seward said: 

“He himself was quite convinced, from Monsieur Mercier’s account of what had passed, that the Confederates were about to make a last effort, that their last resources were brought into play; that their last Armies were in the field.  If they were now defeated, they would accept the terms which would be offered them.  Their talking of retiring into the interior was idle.  If the United States were undisputed masters of the Border States and the Sea Coast, there would be no occasion for any more fighting.  Those who chose to retire into the interior were welcome to do so, and to stay there till they were tired.”

“The truth,” wrote Lyons, “as to the state of feeling in the South probably lies somewhere between Mr. Seward’s views and those of Monsieur Mercier.”  Lyons concluded his report of the whole matter: 

“The result of Monsieur Mercier’s journey has been to bring him back precisely to the point at which he was three months ago.  The Federal successes which occurred afterwards had somewhat shaken his conviction in the ultimate success of the South, and consequently his opinions as to the policy to be adopted by France.  The sentiments he now expresses are exactly those which he expressed at the beginning of the year[602].”

In other words, Mercier was now again pressing for early recognition of the South at the first favourable moment.  On Lyons the effect of the adventure to Richmond was just the reverse of this; and on Russell also its influence was to cause some doubt of Southern success.  Appended to Lyons’ report stands Russell’s initialled comment: 

“It is desirable to know what is the Interior to which the Southern Confederates propose if beaten to retire.  If in Arms they will be pursued, if not in Arms their discontent will cause but little embarrassment to their Conquerors.  But can the country be held permanently by the U.S.  Armies if the Confederates have small bodies in Arms resisting the authority of the U.S.  Congress?

     Any facts shewing the strength or weakness of the Union
     feeling in the South will be of great value in forming a
     judgment on the final issue.”