Adams’ estimate was correct.  Even the Morning Post, generally accepted as Palmerston’s organ[465], and in the Trent crisis the most ‘vigorous’ of all metropolitan journals, commented upon the general public hope of a peaceful solution, but asked on December 30, “... can a Government [the American] elected but a few months since by the popular choice, depending exclusively for existence on popular support, afford to disappoint the popular expectation?  The answer to this question must, we fear, be in the negative....”  The Post (thereby Palmerston?) did indeed, as later charged, “prolong the excitement,” but not with its earlier animosity to America.  The very fact that the Post was accepted as Palmerston’s organ justified this attitude for it would have been folly for the Government to announce prematurely a result of which there was as yet no definite assurance.  Yet within the Cabinet there was a more hopeful feeling.  Argyll believed Adams’ statement to Russell of December 19 was practically conclusive[466], and Adams himself now thought that the prevalent idea was waning of an American plan to inflict persistent “indignities” on Britain:  “at least in this case nothing of the kind had been intended[467].”  Everyone wondered at and was vexed with the delay of an answer from America, yet hopefully believed that this indicated ultimate yielding.  There could be no surety until the event.  Russell wrote to Palmerston on January 7, “I still incline to think Lincoln will submit, but not until the clock is 59 minutes past 11.  If it is war, I fear we must summon Parliament forthwith[468].”

The last moment for reply was indeed very nearly taken advantage of at Washington, but not to the full seven days permitted for consideration by Russell’s November thirtieth instructions to Lyons.  These were received on December 18, and on the next day Lyons unofficially acquainted Seward with their nature[469].  The latter expressed gratification with the “friendly and conciliatory manner” of Lyons and asked for two days’ time for consideration.  On Saturday, December 21, therefore, Lyons again appeared to make a formal presentation of demands but was met with a statement that the press of other business had prevented sufficient consideration and was asked for a further two days’ postponement until Monday.  Hence December 23 became the day from which the seven days permitted for consideration and reply dated.  In the meantime, Mercier, on December 21, had told Seward of the strong support given by France to the British position.

The month that had elapsed since the American outburst on first learning of Wilkes’ act had given time for a cooling of patriotic fever and for a saner judgment.  Henry Adams in London had written to his brother that if the prisoners were not given up, “this nation means to make war.”  To this the brother in America replied “this nation doesn’t[470],” an answer that sums up public determination no matter