produced less effect than might have been expected, and this because of the persistent fear and suspicion of Seward.  His voice, it was felt, would in the end be the determining one, and if British belief that he had long sought an occasion for war was correct, this surely was the time when he could be confident of popular support.  Thurlow Weed, Seward’s most intimate political adviser, was now in London and attempted to disabuse the British public through the columns of the Times.  His communication was printed, but his assertion that Seward’s unfriendly utterances, beginning with the “Newcastle story,” were misunderstood, did not convince the Times, which answered him at length[457], and asserted its belief “... that upon his ability to involve the United States in a war with England, Mr. Seward has staked his official, and, most probably, also his political existence.”  The Duke of Newcastle’s report of Seward’s remarks, wrote George Peabody later, “has strongly influenced the Government in war preparations for several months past[458].”  Adams himself, though convinced that Seward’s supposed animosity “was a mistake founded on a bad joke of his to the Duke of Newcastle,” acknowledged that:  “The Duke has, however, succeeded in making everybody in authority here believe it[459].”  Surely no “joke” to an Englishman ever so plagued an American statesman; but British Ministers founded their suspicions on far more serious reasons, as previously related[460].

As time passed without an answer from America, British speculation turned to estimates of the probable conditions of a war.  These were not reassuring since even though postulating a British victory, it appeared inevitable that England would not escape without considerable damage from the American navy and from privateers.  Americans were “a powerful and adventurous people, strong in maritime resources, and participating in our own national familiarity with the risks and dangers of the deep[461].”  Englishmen must not think that a war would be fought only on the shores of America and in Canada.  The legal question was re-hashed and intelligent American vexation re-stated in three letters printed in the Daily News on December 25, 26 and 27, by W. W. Story, an artist resident in Rome, but known in England as the son of Justice Story, whose fame as a jurist stood high in Great Britain[462].  By the last week of the year Adams felt that the Ministry, at least, was eager to find a way out:  “The Government here will not press the thing to an extreme unless they are driven to it by the impetus of the wave they have themselves created[463].”  He greatly regretted the death of the Prince Consort who “believed in the policy of conciliating the United States instead of repelling them.”  On December 27, Adams wrote Seward:  “I think the signs are clear of a considerable degree of reaction.”  He also explained the causes of the nearly unanimous European support of England in this contention:  “Unquestionably the view of all other countries is that the opportunity is most fortunate for obtaining new and large modifications of international law which will hereafter materially restrain the proverbial tendency of this country on the ocean[464].”