the attention of the British Government was directed to a proposal urged by Mercier upon Lyons in Washington, which appeared to have the support of the French Government.  On September 30, Mercier, so Lyons reported, had received a private letter from Thouvenel expressing great concern over the prospective scarcity of cotton from America, due to the blockade, and asking Mercier’s advice.  The latter now informed Lyons that his reply had outlined the following steps:  first, complete harmony of action between England and France; second, recognition of Southern independence; third, refusal longer to recognize the blockade; fourth, England and France to be alert to seize the “favourable moment,” when the North became disheartened, the present moment not being a good one[387].  This policy Mercier thought so “bold” that the North would be deterred from declaring war.  The two diplomats held long argument over this suggestion.  Lyons acknowledged the general pressure for cotton, but thought there was no need of great alarm as yet and also advanced the idea that in the end Europe would benefit by being forced to develop other sources of supply, thus being freed from such exclusive dependence on the United States.  Mercier answered that France was in dire need and could not wait and he urged that mere recognition of the South would not secure cotton—­it was necessary also to break the blockade.  In comment to Russell, Lyons agreed that this was true, but thought the fact in itself an argument against accepting Mercier’s ideas:  “The time is far distant when the intervention of England and France in the quarrel would be welcomed, or, unless under compulsion, tolerated by the American peoples.”  The South had not yet “gone far enough in establishing its independence to render a recognition of it either proper or desirable for European powers,” and he stated with emphasis that recognition would not end the war unless there was also an alliance with the South[388].

In the British Cabinet also, at this same time, attention was being directed to the question of cotton, not, primarily, by any push from the British manufacturing interest, but because of queries addressed to it by the French Minister in London.  Russell wrote to Palmerston, referring to the inquiry of Flahault, “I agree with you that the cotton question may become serious at the end of the year,” but he added that Lindsay had informed him that in any case cotton could not be brought in the winter-time from the interior to the Southern ports[389].  In truth any serious thought given at this time to the question of cotton appears to be the result of the French arguments at London and Washington advocating a vigorous American policy.  October 19, Lyons and Mercier renewed debate on exactly the same lines as previously, Mercier this time reading to Lyons an instruction from Thouvenel and his reply.  Lyons insisted that the North would most certainly declare war on any power that