For years I have repeated this to our English friends who were intoxicated with the theories of Chamberlain.  I see without surprise but with sorrow that serious journals of London and Paris spread before the eyes of their readers the absurd idea that this war will kill the German foreign commerce, while the English and French production will be enriched without a rival, and consequently without effort.  Place should be made for Germany from Berlin to Vienna in the organization of a general European confederation which will give full satisfaction to Italy at Trieste, will install the Turkish Government in Asia, will bring about an agreement between the Christian Balkan States, and give the free disposal of their destinies to Poland, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Rumania, and Alsace-Lorraine.

In this manner the worst problems on which general peace depends would be solved, and with these problems that of armaments, which it would no longer be dangerous nor humiliating to reduce if the general reduction, extending even to Japan and seconded by all the republics of the New World, were agreed to by all.  Certainly such an agreement would be difficult to develop; it would terrify the diplomats, but outside of such an agreement I see in perspective nothing but perpetual war, internal revolution, and general ruin.

Fifth Letter.

PARIS, Sept. 18, 1914.

* * * The pride of an empire may not be crushed without a bitter struggle.  The German Government has at its disposition the live force of a young and growing people.  However, the day is coming when that people, aware that they have been deceived, will be able to repudiate their Government, just as the French people did after Sedan.  Meanwhile the German armies have stopped their retreat in order to form a new line of resistance.  But to what good?  This line will be overthrown, and in the end the German Army will be obliged to retreat in disorder and again to cross the land which it has laid waste.

The true difficulties, in my opinion, are going to commence when the conquered Germans must submit to the conditions made by the conquerors.  The victors will be able to agree, I believe, to stop the war and to dictate conditions.  But will they agree to make these conditions moderate?  That is the question.  At that moment even France will be far from unanimous, as she has been unanimous in defending herself.  France is of one opinion on these principal points: 

1.  Alsace-Lorraine ought to be liberated at last, free to return to France; her rights ought to be respected and recognized.  Such liberation should extend as far as possible to every country in Europe whose right has been violated.

2.  We must make an end of ruinous armed peace, invented, so it was said, to prevent war, but which has made war inevitable.  German militarism must be crushed unless it is again to become a menace and give the signal for another competition of armaments.  This peace will be only a truce, a sinister comedy, unless it is crowned by a general convention of disarmament, to which Germany must subscribe with all the others and before all the others.