German army, on the other hand, will be far less formidable than a retiring French army, because it has less “devil” in it, because it is made up of men taught to obey in masses, because its intelligence is concentrated in its aristocratic officers, because it is dismayed when it breaks ranks.  The German Army is everything the conscriptionists dreamed of making our people; it is, in fact, an army about twenty years behind the requirements of contemporary conditions.

On the eastern frontier the issue is more doubtful because of the uncertainty of Russian things.  The peculiar military strength of Russia, a strength it was not able to display in Manchuria, lies in its vast resources of mounted men.  A set invasion of Prussia may be a matter of many weeks, but the raiding possibilities in Eastern Germany are enormous.  It is difficult to guess how far the Russian attack will be guided by intelligence, and how far Russia will blunder, but Russia will have to blunder very disastrously indeed before she can be put upon the defensive.  A Russian raid is far more likely to threaten Berlin than a German to reach Paris.

Meanwhile there is the struggle on the sea.  In that I am prepared for some rude shocks.  The Germans have devoted an amount of energy to the creation of an aggressive navy that would have been spent more wisely in consolidating their European position.  It is probably a thoroughly good navy and ship for ship the equal of our own.  But the same lack of invention, the same relative uncreativeness that has kept the German behind the Frenchman in things aerial has made him, regardless of his shallow seas, follow our lead in naval matters, and if we have erred, and I believe we have erred, in overrating the importance of the big battleship, the German has at least very obligingly fallen in with our error.  The safest, most effective place for the German fleet at the present time is the Baltic Sea.  On this side of the Kiel Canal, unless I overrate the powers of the waterplane, there is no safe harbor for it.  If it goes into port anywhere that port can be ruined, and the bottled-up ships can be destroyed at leisure by aerial bombs.  So that if they are on this side of the Kiel Canal they must keep the sea and fight, if we let them, before their coal runs short.  Battle in the open sea in this case is their only chance.  They will fight against odds, and with every prospect of a smashing, albeit we shall certainly have to pay for that victory in ships and men.  In the Baltic we shall not be able to get at them without the participation of Denmark, and they may have a considerable use against Russia.  But in the end even there mine and aeroplane and destroyer should do their work.