But be it remembered that Europe’s quarrel is with the German State, not with the German people; with a system, and not with a race.  The older tradition of Germany is a pacific and civilizing tradition.  The temperament of the mass of German people is kindly, sane, and amiable.  Disaster to the German Army, if it is unaccompanied by any such memorable wrong as dismemberment or intolerable indignity, will mean the restoration of the greatest people in Europe to the fellowship of Western nations.  The role of England in this huge struggle is plain as daylight.  We have to fight.  If only on account of the Luxemburg outrage, we have to fight.  If we do not fight, England will cease to be a country to be proud of; it will be a dirt-bath to escape from.  But it is inconceivable that we should not fight.  And having fought, then in the hour of victory it will be for us to save the liberated Germans from vindictive treatment, to secure for this great people their right, as one united German-speaking State, to a place in the sun.

First we have to save ourselves and Europe, and then we have to stand between German on the one hand and the Cossack and revenge on the other.

For my own part, I do not doubt that Germany and Austria are doomed to defeat in this war.  It may not be catastrophic defeat, though even that is possible, but it is defeat.  There is no destiny in the stars and every sign is false if this is not so.

They have provoked an overwhelming combination of enemies.  They have underrated France.  They are hampered by a bad social and military tradition.  The German is not naturally a good soldier; he is orderly and obedient, but he is not nimble nor quick-witted; since his sole considerable military achievement, his not very lengthy march to Paris in ’70 and ’71, the conditions of modern warfare have been almost completely revolutionized and in a direction that subordinates the massed fighting of unintelligent men to the rapid initiative of individualized soldiers.  And, on the other hand, since those years of disaster, the Frenchman has learned the lesson of humility; he is prepared now sombrely for a sombre struggle; his is the gravity that precedes astonishing victories.  In the air, in the open field, with guns and machines, it is doubtful if any one fully realizes the superiority of his quality to the German.  This sudden attack may take him aback for a week or so, though I doubt even that, but in the end I think he will hold his own; even without us he will hold his own, and with us then I venture to prophesy that within three months from now his tricolor will be over the Rhine.  And even suppose his line gets broken by the first rush.  Even then I do not see how the Germans are to get to Paris or anywhere near Paris.  I do not see how against the strength of the modern defensive and the stinging power of an intelligent enemy in retreat, of which we had a little foretaste in South Africa, the exploit of Sedan can be repeated.  A retiring