The prices of eggs also vary independently of other commodities because of a gradual changing relation between production and consumption.  As stated in the first chapter the prices of poultry products have shown a general rise when compared with other articles.  This has been most marked since 1900.  As for the future we cannot prophesy save to say that there is nothing in sight to lead us to believe that we will not go still higher in egg prices.

A third variation in the price of eggs is the one caused by the seasonal relation of production and consumption.  This change is from year to year fairly constant.  Its normal may be seen in the scientifically smoothed curve in plate IV.  This curve is based upon the New York prices for the last eighteen years.

In addition to these broader influences there are disturbing tendencies that cause the market to fluctuate back and forth across the line where the more general influences would place it.

Of those general factors, weather is the most important.  Storms, rain and cold in the egg producing region decrease the lay, lower supplies and raise the price.  This is due both to the fact that laying is cut down and that the country roads become impassable and the farmers do not bring the eggs to town.  As long as there are storage eggs in the warehouses weather conditions are not so effective, but when these are gone, which is usually about the first of the year, the egg market becomes highly sensitive to all weather changes.  Suppose late in February storms and snows force up the price of eggs.  This is followed by a warm spell which starts the March lay.  The roads, meanwhile, are in a quagmire from melting snows.  When they do dry up eggs come to town by the wagon loads.  A drop of ten cents or more may occur on such occasions within a day or two’s time.  This is known as the spring drop and for one to get caught with eggs on hand means heavy losses.

When once eggs have suffered this drop to the spring level or the storage price for the season, the prices for April, May and June will remain fairly steady.  About the last week in June the summer climb begins.  This goes on very steadily with local variation of about the same as those of the spring months.  The storage eggs begin to come out in August and at first sell about the same as fresh.  As the season advances the fresh product continues to rise in price.  The storage egg price will remain fairly uniform.  By November the season of high prices is reached.  If storage eggs are still plentiful and the weather is mild sudden variations in price may occur.  These are caused by a fear that the storage eggs will not all be consumed before spring.  If an oversupply of eggs have been stored a warm spell in winter will make a heavy drop in the market, but if storage eggs are scarce the sudden variations will be up-shots due to cold waves.  From November until spring egg prices are a creature of the weather maps and sudden jumps from 5 to 10 cents may occur at any time.