we fail, another enemy, even the United States, would not make our defeat more thorough.  We are justified, for our existence is at stake.  The only way we can escape defeat is by a successful U-boat war against England.  That would change defeat into overwhelming victory.  I am absolutely confident; that is why the slow methods of the Chancellor make me so angry.  It will take at least half a year to bring England to her knees, and with our increased privations he may wait too long.  But we shall compel him; we shall compel him.”

Herr Stresemann later requested me not to publish these statements—­at least, not until a decision had been reached.  I did, however, lay the matter before the American Embassy in London as soon as I arrived in England, since my investigations in Germany left no doubt in my mind that she would play two great cards—­one, to work for peace through negotiation; the other, the last desperate recourse to the submarine.

As I write (January 21st, 1917) I am convinced that it is only a question of time until Germany is reduced to this last desperate resort.  The men, who will decide that time will be Hindenburg and Batocki.  The successful siege of Germany is a stupendous though not impossible task.

On the other hand, the human system is a very elastic piece of mechanism, and modern man, far from being the degenerate which some admirers of cave-man hardihood have pictured him, is able to undergo a tremendous amount of privation.  Besieged cities have nearly always held out longer than the besiegers expected.  In the besieged city the civilian population is for the most part a drag on the military, but in besieged Germany the civilian population, reinforced by slave labour from Belgium, France and Poland, continues working at high pressure in order to enable the military to keep the field.  Fat is the vital factor.  The more munitions Germany heaps up the more fat she must use for this purpose, and the less she will have for the civil population, with a consequent diminution of their output of work.  Germany simply cannot burn the candle at both ends.  It is my personal opinion that Verdun marks the supreme culmination of German military offensive in the West, and the West is the decisive theatre of war.  If that is Hindenburg’s opinion, then he realises that another colossal German offensive in the West would not bring a victorious peace.  There remains only the alternative of building up a defensive against the coming Allied attacks—­an alternative depending for its success upon sufficient food for the mass of the people.  Thus the U-boat decision clearly rests upon the Chief of Staff and the Food Dictator, since their advice to the Imperial Chancellor and the All Highest War Lord must be determinative.  When the day comes for Germany to proclaim to the world that she will sink at sight all ships going to and from the ports of her enemies, that day will be one of the great moments of history.  Germany’s last card will be on the table.  It will be war to the knife.  Either she will starve Great Britain or Great Britain, will starve her.