It is difficult to decipher Napoleon’s wishes; he seems to have believed that war was inevitable; there is no proof that he desired it.  He made preparations; the army was reorganised, the numbers increased, and a new weapon introduced.  At the same time he looked about for allies.  Negotiations were carried on with Austria; in 1868 a meeting was arranged between the two Emperors; Beust, who was now Chancellor of the Austrian Empire, was anxious to make an attempt to overthrow the power of Prussia in Germany.  In 1870, negotiations were entered into for a military alliance; a special envoy, General Lebrun, was sent to Vienna to discuss the military arrangements in case of war.  No treaty was signed, but it was an almost understood thing that sooner or later an alliance between the two Emperors should be formed against Prussia.

It will be seen then that at the beginning of 1870 everything was tending towards war, and that under certain circumstances war was desirable, both for France and for Germany; much seemed to depend on the occasion of the outbreak.  If Prussia took the offensive, if she attempted by force to win the southern States, she would be faced by a coalition of France and Austria, supported only too probably by Bavaria, and this was a coalition which would find much sympathy among the discontented in North Germany.  On the other hand, it was for the advantage of Prussia not to delay the conflict:  the King was growing old; Bismarck could never be sure how long he would remain in office; moreover, the whole forces of North Germany had now been completely reorganised and were ready for war, but with the year 1871 it was to be foreseen that a fresh attempt would be made to reduce their numbers; it was desirable to avoid a fresh conflict on the military budget; everything shews that 1870 was the year in which it would be most convenient for Prussia to fight.

Prussia, at this time, had no active allies on whom she could depend; Bismarck indeed had secured the neutrality of Russia, but he did not know that the Czar would come actively to his help; we may feel sure that he would prefer not to have to call upon Russia for assistance, for, as we have seen in older days, a war between France and Russia, in which Germany joined, would be very harmful to Germany.  It was in these circumstances that an opportunity shewed itself of gaining another ally who would be more subservient than Russia.  One of the many revolutions which had harassed Spain during this century had broken out.  Queen Isabella had lost the throne, and General Prim found himself obliged to look about for a new sovereign.  He applied in vain to all the Catholic Courts; nobody was anxious to accept an honour coupled with such danger as ruling over the Spanish people.  Among others he applied to Leopold, hereditary Prince of Hohenzollern, eldest son of that Prince of Hohenzollern who a few years before had been President of the Prussian Ministry.  The choice seemed a good one:  the Prince was an amiable, courageous man; he was a Catholic; he was, moreover, connected with the Napoleonic family.  His brother had, three years before, been appointed King of Roumania with Napoleon’s good-will.