Views of Barbe Marbois.

The most intelligent French agents on the ground saw this.  Some of Napoleon’s Ministers were equally far-sighted.  One of them, Barbe Marbois, represented to him in the strongest terms the hopelessness of the undertaking on which he proposed to embark.  He pointed out that the United States was sure to go to war with France if France took New Orleans, and that in the end such a war could only result in victory for the Americans.

We can now readily see that this victory was certain to come, even had the Americans been left without allies.  France could never have defended the vast region known as Upper Louisiana, and sooner or later New Orleans itself would have fallen, though it may well be only after humiliating defeats for the Americans and much expenditure of life and treasure.  But as things actually were the Americans would have had plenty of powerful allies.  The Peace of Amiens lasted but a couple of years before England again went to war.  Napoleon knew, and the American statesmen knew, that the British intended to attack New Orleans upon the outbreak of hostilities, if it were in French hands.  In such event Louisiana would have soon fallen; for any French force stationed there would have found its reinforcements cut off by the English navy, and would have dwindled away until unable to offer resistance.

    Louisiana’s Destiny Really by the Backwoodsmen.

Nevertheless, European wars, and the schemes and fancies of European statesmen, could determine merely the conditions under which the catastrophe was to take place, but not the catastrophe itself.  The fate of Louisiana was already fixed.  It was not the diplomats who decided its destiny, but the settlers of the Western states.  The growth of the teeming folk who had crossed the Alleghanies and were building their rude, vigorous commonwealths in the northeastern portion of the Mississippi basin, decided the destiny of all the lands that were drained by that mighty river.  The steady westward movement of the Americans was the all-important factor in determining the ultimate ownership of New Orleans.  Livingston, the American minister, saw plainly the inevitable outcome of the struggle.  He expressed his wonder that other Americans should be uneasy in the matter, saying that for his part it seemed as clear as day that no matter what trouble might temporarily be caused, in the end Louisiana was certain to fall into the grasp of the United States. [Footnote:  Livingston to Madison, Sept. 1, 1802.  Later Livingston himself became uneasy, fearing lest Napoleon’s wilfulness might plunge him into an undertaking which, though certain to end disastrously to the French, might meanwhile cause great trouble to the Americans.]

    Tedious Course of the Negotiations.