Our political duties, therefore, are complicated, and during the Turco-Italian War all that we can do at first is to use our influence as mediators, and to prevent a transference of hostilities to the Balkan Peninsula.  It cannot be decided at this moment whether further intervention will be necessary.  Finally, as regards our own position in Europe, we can only effect an extension of our own political influence, in my opinion, by awakening in our weaker neighbours, through the integrity and firmness of our policy, the conviction that their independence and their interests are bound up with Germany, and are best secured under the protection of the German arms.  This conviction might eventually lead to an enlargement of the Triple Alliance into a Central European Federation.  Our military strength in Central Europe would by this means be considerably increased, and the extraordinarily unfavourable geographical configuration of our dominions would be essentially improved in case of war.  Such a federation would be the expression of a natural community of interests, which is founded on the geographical and natural conditions, and would insure the durability of the political community based on it.

We must employ other means also for the widening of our colonial territory, so that it may be able to receive the overflow of our population.  Very recent events have shown that, under certain circumstances, it is possible to obtain districts in Equatorial Africa by pacific negotiations.  A financial or political crash in Portugal might give us the opportunity to take possession of a portion of the Portuguese colonies.  We may assume that some understanding exists between England and Germany which contemplates a division of the Portuguese colonial possessions, but has never become publici juris.  It cannot, indeed, be certain that England, if the contingency arrives, would be prepared honestly to carry out such a treaty, if it actually exists.  She might find ways and means to invalidate it.  It has even been often said, although disputed in other quarters, that Great Britain, after coming to an agreement with Germany about the partition of the Portuguese colonies, had, by a special convention, guaranteed Portugal the possession of all her colonies.

Other possible schemes may be imagined, by which some extension of our African territory would be possible.  These need not be discussed here more particularly.  If necessary, they must be obtained as the result of a successful European war.  In all these possible acquisitions of territory the point must be strictly borne in mind that we require countries which are climatically suited to German settlers.  Now, there are even in Central Africa large regions which are adapted to the settlement of German farmers and stock-breeders, and part of our overflow population might be diverted to those parts.  But, generally speaking, we can only obtain in tropical colonies markets for our industrial products and wide stretches of cultivated ground for the growth of the raw materials which our industries require.  This represents in itself a considerable advantage, but does not release us from the obligation to acquire land for actual colonization.