A successful policy, therefore, cannot be followed without taking chances and facing risks.  It must be conscious of its goal, and keep this goal steadily in view.  It must press every change of circumstances and all unforeseen occurrences into the service of its own ideas.  Above all things, it must he ready to seize the psychological moment, and take bold action if the general position of affairs indicates the possibility of realizing political ambitions or of waging a necessary war under favourable conditions.  “The great art of policy,” writes Frederick the Great, “is not to swim against the stream, but to turn all events to one’s own profit.  It consists rather in deriving advantage from favourable conjunctures than in preparing such conjunctures.”  Even in his Rheinsberg days he acknowledged the principle to which he adhered all his life:  “Wisdom is well qualified to keep what one possesses; but boldness alone can acquire.”  “I give you a problem to solve,” he said to his councillors when the death of Emperor Charles VI. was announced.  “When you have the advantage, are you to use it or not?”

Definite, clearly thought out political goals, wise foresight, correct summing up alike of one’s own and of foreign interests, accurate estimation of the forces of friends and foes, bold advocacy of the interests, not only of the mother-country, but also of allies, and daring courage when the critical hour strikes—­these are the great laws of political and military success.

The political preparation for war is included in them.  He who is blinded by the semblance of power and cannot resolve to act, will never be able to make political preparations for the inevitable war with any success.  “The braggart feebleness which travesties strength, the immoral claim which swaggers in the sanctity of historical right, the timidity which shelters its indecision behind empty and formal excuses, never were more despised than by the great Prussian King,” so H. v.  Treitschke tells us.  “Old Fritz” must be our model in this respect, and must teach us with remorseless realism so to guide our policy that the position of the political world may be favourable for us, and that we do not miss the golden opportunity.

It is an abuse of language if our unenterprising age tries to stigmatize that energetic policy which pursued positive aims as an adventurist policy.  That title can only be given to the policy which sets up personal ideals and follows them without just estimation of the real current of events, and so literally embarks on incalculable adventures, as Napoleon did in Mexico, and Italy in Abyssinia.

A policy taking all factors into consideration, and realizing these great duties of the State, which are an historical legacy and are based on the nature of things, is justified when it boldly reckons with the possibility of a war.  This is at once apparent if one considers the result to the State when war is forced on it under disadvantageous circumstances.  I need only instance 1806, and the terrible catastrophe to which the feeble, unworthy peace policy of Prussia led.