We have already hazarded the prophecy that after a long war of general exhaustion Germany will be the first to realise defeat.  This does not mean that she will surrender unconditionally, but that she will be reduced to bargaining to see how much she must surrender, and what she may hold.  It is my impression that she will be deserted by Bulgaria, and that Turkey will be out of the fighting before the end.  But these are chancy matters.  Against Germany there will certainly be the three great allies, France, Russia and Britain, and almost certainly Japan will be with them.  The four will probably have got to a very complete and detailed understanding among themselves.  Italy—­in, I fear, a slightly detached spirit—­will sit at the board.  Hungary will be present, sitting, so to speak, amidst the decayed remains of Austria.  Roumania, a little out of breath through hurrying at the last, may be present as the latest ally of Italy.  The European neutrals will be at least present in spirit; their desires will be acutely felt; but it is doubtful if the United States will count for all that they might in the decision.  Such weight as America chooses to exercise—­would that she would choose to exercise more!—­will probably be on the side of the rational and natural settlement of the world.

Now the most important thing of all at this settlement will be the temper and nature of the Germany with which the Allies will be dealing.

Let us not be blinded by the passions of war into confusing a people with its government and the artificial Kultur of a brief century.  There is a Germany, great and civilised, a decent and admirable people, masked by Imperialism, blinded by the vanity of the easy victories of half a century ago, wrapped in illusion.  How far will she be chastened and disillusioned by the end of this war?

The terms of peace depend enormously upon the answer to that question.  If we take the extremest possibility, and suppose a revolution in Germany or in South Germany, and the replacement of the Hohenzollerns in all or part of Germany by a Republic, then I am convinced that for republican Germany there would be not simply forgiveness, but a warm welcome back to the comity of nations.  The French, British, Belgians and Italians, and every civilised force in Russia would tumble over one another in their eager greeting of this return to sanity.

If we suppose a less extreme but more possible revolution, taking the form of an inquiry into the sanity of the Kaiser and his eldest son, and the establishment of constitutional safeguards for the future, that also would bring about an extraordinary modification of the resolution of the Pledged Allies.  But no ending to this war, no sort of settlement, will destroy the antipathy of the civilised peoples for the violent, pretentious, sentimental and cowardly imperialism that has so far dominated Germany.  All Europe outside Germany now hates and dreads the Hohenzollerns.