establishments.  It is clear, therefore, that the economic growth of Belgium will be retarded in a great degree.[1] The same holds good of Germany, though probably not to the same extent unless the theatre of war is extended to cover a considerable part of the Empire.  In the case of our own country, provided it remains free from invasion, there will not be such a large replacement of lost wealth and capital destroyed by the war, except in the case of shipping; but in common with other States there will be the war to pay for, and certain obligations to meet regarding the maimed and the relatives of the slain.  Taxation will be heavy, and therefore, on this ground alone the accumulation of new capital will be retarded.  Industrial organisation, having been re-arranged and modified to meet the requirements of the war period, will not resume its old form without a good deal of creaking and jolting.  And even if it could, it will not be able to face the new conditions arising out of the war at all rapidly.  There is every prospect, therefore, of a time of great difficulty after the war is over, before the normal course of industrial and commercial activity is fully resumed.  In all likelihood, we shall find that the relative importance of our various industries will have altered to some extent, and that the nature of our trade will have been modified also.  Then also the relative positions of our home and foreign trade may shift; in other words, if the war lasts sufficiently long for new industries to develop and become efficient, they may survive the competition of foreign goods after the war; in which case, the goods which have hitherto been produced to buy the foreign goods will not now be required for foreign trade.  It may be that on the return of peace, some European States, in order to give their industries an opportunity to recover from the effects of the war, will inaugurate new tariffs; there is, indeed, a strong possibility that on these grounds, and because of the dependence of the United Kingdom on the products of Germany, the Tariff Reform Movement here may be electrified into life.

[Footnote 1:  If Germany be required to compensate Belgium for the damage done, these effects will in large part disappear; though the burden would still remain.  The difference would be that it would be more widely distributed.]

2. Possible Industrial Developments.—­But industrial changes will not be confined to the direction and form which economic activity will take.  As has been suggested above, there may be far-reaching changes in the methods of production.  It has been said that “there is only one way by which the wealth of the world will be quickly replaced after the war and that is by work.  The country whose workers show the greatest capacity for productiveness will be the country which will most rapidly recuperate."[1] The question goes deeper than the replacement of wealth.  The position after the war will be that production