Such are the changes which an application of the principle of Nationality involves.  Let us then be under no illusions; they are changes such as can only be extracted from a Germany which has virtually ceased to exist as a military power—­a contingency which is still remote to-day, and which can only be attained by enormous sacrifices in blood and resources.  It is only by readjustment and compensation in other directions that the German nation could be induced even to consider a revision of frontier, and from the nature of things such compensation can only have one meaning—­the break-up of Austria-Hungary.

Sec.5. The Future of Austria-Hungary.—­For many years this break-up has been foretold by political pessimists inside and outside the Habsburg dominions, and by many interested agitators both in Central and in Western Europe.  The present writer, on the other hand, has always regarded Austria-Hungary as an organism full of infinite possibilities of progress and culture, a State modelled upon that diversity of type which Lord Acton held to be the surest guarantee of liberty.  Those who affected to treat it as moribund under-estimated both the underlying geographical bases of its existence and its great natural resources; they emphasised what separates rather than what unites.  In short, they saw the rivalry between the two mottoes “Divide et Impera” and “Viribus Unitis,” and laid undue stress upon the former.  Just because they realised the extraordinarily complicated nature of the racial problems involved, they tended to overlook the steady advance made in recent years by Austria in the conceptions of political and constitutional freedom.  But at every turn Hungary has been Austria’s evil genius:  the influence of the Magyar oligarchy has given a reactionary flavour alike to internal and to foreign policy, has hampered every reform, and poisoned the relations of the State with its southern neighbours.

[Illustration:  AUSTRIA-HUNGARY:  POLITICAL DIVISIONS]

For a short time the aggressive Balkan policy of Count Aehrenthal, as exemplified in the annexation of Bosnia and the diplomatic duel with Russia, was hailed as worthy of the Bismarckian tradition; but it soon became clear that he was far from being the genius whose advent the Monarchy was so anxiously awaiting.  In recent years, then, despite many hopeful signs, and despite increasing activity in almost every sphere of life, a kind of progressive paralysis has taken hold upon the body-politic.  Three main causes may be noted—­the lack of any great men capable of counteracting the Emperor’s lack of initiative, which was always very marked, but has been accentuated by advancing old age; the superficial and malicious outlook of the capital and the classes which control it; the alliance between the Magyar oligarchy and the Jewish press and Haute Finance, working in a pronouncedly anti-Slav direction.  The wheels still went round, but the machine of State made less and less progress: