As an example it may be stated that in the first four months of 1917 the delivery of destroyers was within one of the forecast made in October, 1916, four vessels of the class being slightly behind and three ahead of the forecast.  Of thirteen “E” class submarines forecasted in October, 1916, for delivery by March, 1917, all except two were delivered by April; of twelve “K” class submarines forecasted for delivery in the same period, all except three were delivered by April, 1917.  It should be stated that these “K” class submarines were vessels of a new type, involving new problems of some difficulty.

On the other hand there was considerable delay in the completion of a number of the thirty “P” boats forecasted in October, 1916, for delivery during the first seven months of 1917, and the April forecast showed that only twenty out of the thirty would be delivered during that period.  There was also some delay in the delivery of twin screw minesweepers, twenty of which were shown in the forecast of October, 1916, as due for delivery in the first six months of 1917.  The April, 1917, forecast showed that six had been delivered or would complete in April, ten more would complete within the estimated period, and the four remaining would be overdue and would not be delivered until July or August.

These figures show the degree of reliance which could be placed on the personal forecasts of the Third Sea Lord under the old organization.  It is, of course, a fact that accurate forecasts do not necessarily mean that the rate of production is satisfactory, but only that the forecast is to be depended on.  We were never at all satisfied with the rate of production, either under the old or the new organization.  Accuracy of forecast was, however, of great use from the Staff point of view in allotting new ships to the various commands and in planning operations.

To turn now to the figures given by the Admiralty Controller under the new organization.  The table below shows the forecasts ("F”) given in June, 1917, and the deliveries ("D”) of different classes of warships month by month during the period of July to November of that year: 

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Class of   | July. |  Aug. | Sept. | Oct.  |  Nov. | Deficit in
Vessel.       | F | D | F | D | F | D | F | D | F | D | 5 months
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Flotilla      |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
Leaders     |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
and T.B.D’s.| 5 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |     4
Submarines    | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 |    11
Sloops        | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 |     5
“P.”  Boats    | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |     3
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Amongst vessels which were classed as auxiliaries the figures were: