On June 29, 1906, Congress provided that a lock type of canal be constructed across the Isthmus of Panama, of the general type proposed by the minority of the Board of Consulting Engineers, and work has continued along these lines.  The Board of Consulting Engineers estimated the cost of the lock type of canal at $139,705,200 and of the sea-level canal at $247,021,000, excluding the cost of sanitation, civil government, the purchase price, and interest on the investment.  These sums were for construction purposes only.

I ventured a guess that the construction of the lock type of canal would approach $300,000,000, and without stopping to consider that the same causes which led to an increase in cost over the original estimates for the lock canal must affect equally the sea-level type, the advocates of the latter argued that the excess of the new estimates was an additional reason why the lock type should be abandoned in favor of the sea-level canal.

The estimated cost by the present commission for completing the adopted project, excluding the items let out by the Board of Consulting Engineers, is placed at $297,766,000.  If to this be added the estimated cost of sanitation and civil government until the completion of the work, and the $50,000,000 purchase price, the total cost to the United States of the lock type of canal will amount to $375,201,000.  In the preparation of these estimates there are no unknown factors.

The estimated cost of the sea-level canal for construction alone sums up to $477,601,000, and if to this be added the cost of sanitation and civil government up to the time of the completion of the canal, which will be at least six years later than the lock canal, and the purchase price, the total cost to the United States will aggregate $563,000,000.  In this case, however, parts of the estimate are more or less conjectural—­such as the cost of diverting the Chagres to permit the building of the Gamboa dam and the cost of constructing the dam itself.

Much criticism has resulted because of the excess of the present estimates over those originally proposed, arising largely from a failure to analyze the two estimates or to appreciate fully the actual conditions.

The estimates prepared and accompanying the report of the consulting engineers were based on data less complete than are available at present.  The unit costs in the report of 1906 are identical with those in the report of 1901, and since 1906 there has been an increase in the wage scale and in the cost of material.  On the Isthmus wages exceed those in the United States from 40 to 80 per cent. for the same class of labor.  The original estimates were based on a ten-hour day, but Congress imposed the eight-hour day.  Subsequent surveys and the various changes already noted have increased the quantity of work by 50 per cent., whereas the unit costs have increased only 20 per cent.—­not such a bad showing.  In addition, municipal improvements in Panama and Colon, advances to the Panama Railroad, and moneys received and deposited to the credit of miscellaneous receipts aggregate $15,000,000, which amount will eventually and has in part already been returned to the Treasury.  Finally, no such system of housing and caring for employees was ever contemplated as has been introduced and installed, materially increasing the overhead charges and administration.