During the period we are now considering the Balkan factor first came into prominence with the annexation by Austria of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1908.  Those provinces, it will be remembered, were handed over to Austrian protection at the Congress of Berlin in 1878.  Austria went in and policed the country, much as England went in and policed Egypt, and, from the material point of view, with similarly successful results.  But, like England in Egypt, Austria was not sovereign there.  Formal sovereignty still rested with the Turk.  In 1909, during the Turkish revolution, Austria took the opportunity to throw off that nominal suzerainty.  Russia protested, Austria mobilized against Serbia and Montenegro, and war seemed imminent.  But the dramatic intervention of Germany “in shining armour” on the side of her ally resulted in a diplomatic victory for the Central Powers.  Austria gained her point, and war, for the moment, was avoided.  But such diplomatic victories are dangerous.  Russia did not forget, and the events of 1909 were an operative cause in the catastrophe of 1914.  In acting as she did in this matter Austria-Hungary defied the public law of Europe, and Germany supported her in doing so.

The motives of Germany in taking this action are thus described, and probably with truth, by Baron Beyens:  “She could not allow the solidity of the Triple Alliance to be shaken:  she had a debt of gratitude to pay to her ally, who had supported her at the Congress of Algeciras.  Finally, she believed herself to be the object of an attempt at encirclement by France, England, and Russia, and was anxious to show that the gesture of putting her hand to the sword was enough to dispel the illusions of her adversaries."[1] These are the kind of reasons that all Powers consider adequate where what they conceive to be their interests are involved.  From any higher, more international point of view, they are no reasons at all.  But in such a matter no Power is in a position to throw the first stone.  The whole episode is a classical example for the normal working of the European anarchy.  Austria-Hungary was primarily to blame, but Germany, who supported her, must take her share.  The other Powers of Europe acquiesced for the sake of peace, and they could probably do no better.  There will never be any guarantee for the public law of Europe until there is a public tribunal and a public force to see that its decisions are carried out.

The next events of importance in this region were the two Balkan wars.  We need not here go into the causes and results of these, except so far as to note that, once more, the rivalry of Russia and Austria played a disastrous part.  It was the determination of Austria not to give Serbia access to the Adriatic that led Serbia to retain territories assigned by treaty to Bulgaria, and so precipitated the second Balkan war; for that war was due to the indignation caused in Bulgaria by the breach of faith, and is said to have been directly prompted by Austria.