The records of the Hague Conferences do, then, clearly show that the German Government was more obstinately sceptical of any advance in the direction of international arbitration or disarmament than that of any other Great Power, and especially of Great Britain or the United States.  Whether, in fact, much could or would have been done, even in the absence of German opposition, may be doubted.  There would certainly have been, in every country, very strong opposition to any effective measures, and it is only those who would be willing to see their own Government make a radical advance in the directions in question who can honestly attack the German Government.  As one of those who believe that peaceable procedure may and can, and, if civilization is to be preserved, must be substituted for war, I have a right to express my own condemnation of the German Government, and I unhesitatingly do so.  But I do not infer that therefore Germany was all the time working up to an aggressive war.  It is interesting, in this connection, to note the testimony given by Sir Edwin Pears to the desire for good relations between Great Britain and Germany felt and expressed later by the same Baron Marschall von Bieberstein who was so unyielding in 1907 on the question of arbitration.  When he came to take up the post of German Ambassador to Great Britain, Sir Edwin reports him as saying:—­

I have long wanted to be Ambassador to England, because, as you know, for years I have considered it a misfortune to the world that our two countries are not really in harmony.  I consider that I am here as a man with a mission, my mission being to bring about a real understanding between our two nations.

On this Sir Edwin comments (1915):—­

  I unhesitatingly add that I am convinced he was sincere in what he said. 
  Of that I have no doubt.[4]

It must, in fact, be recognized that in the present state of international relations, the general suspicion and the imminent danger, it requires more imagination and faith than most public men possess, and more idealism than most nations have shown themselves to be capable of, to take any radical step towards reorganization.  The armed peace, as we have so often had to insist, perpetuates itself by the mistrust which it establishes.

Every move by one Power is taken to be a menace to another, and is countered by a similar move, which in turn produces a reply.  And it is not easy to say “Who began it?” since the rivalry goes so far back into the past.  What, for instance, is the real truth about the German, French, and Russian military laws of 1913?  Were any or all of them aggressive?  Or were they all defensive?  I do not believe it is possible to answer that question.  Looking back from the point of view of 1914, it is natural to suppose that Germany was already intending war.  But that did not seem evident at the time to a neutral observer, nor even, it would seem, to the British Foreign Office.  Thus the Count de Lalaing, Belgian Minister in London, writes as follows on February 24, 1913:—­