“That this calculation was decisive for Russia’s change of front is confirmed by a witness whose impartiality even our opponents will admit."[202]

[Footnote 202:  “Deutschland und der Weltkrieg,” pp. 553-4.]

Professor Oncken then supports his argument with quotations from a letter written by the Belgian Legation Secretary in St. Petersburg to his Government.  The letter was doubtless stolen while in transit by the Berlin postal authorities.  Monsieur B. de l’Escaille wrote the letter on July 30th, despatched it by courier to Berlin, where it was posted on the following day.  The outside envelope was addressed to Madame Costermans, 107 Rue Froissard, Bruxelles; inside was a letter addressed to M. Darignon, Minister for Foreign Affairs.  German writers state that no letters were forwarded to foreign countries after martial law was proclaimed on July 31st (a statement which is untrue), thus it fell into their hands.

Overwhelming importance is attached to this document by German war writers.  The more important passages of the despatch run as follows:  “The last two days have passed in the expectation of events which are bound to follow[203] upon Austria-Hungary’s declaration of war against Serbia.  The most contradictory reports were in circulation, without any possibility of confirming their truth or falsity.

[Footnote 203:  Thus the impartial witness whom Germans quote to prove their innocence definitely states that Russia had no other course left open to her by Austria’s actions.—­Author.]

“One thing is, however, indisputable, viz., that Germany has done everything possible both here and in Vienna[204] to find a means of avoiding a general conflict, but has only been met with the determination of the Vienna cabinet, on the one hand, not to yield a single step, and on the other hand Russian distrust of Vienna’s declaration that they merely intend a punitive expedition against Serbia.

[Footnote 204:  How could M. de l’Escaille know what had passed in Vienna?—­Author.]

“One must really believe that everybody wants war, and is only anxious to postpone the declaration in order to gain time.  At first England gave out, that she would not allow herself to be drawn into a conflict.  Sir George Buchanan said that definitely.  But to-day they are firmly convinced in St. Petersburg, indeed they have received an assurance, that England will stand by France.  This support is of extraordinary importance, and has contributed not a little to the war-party gaining the upper hand.

“In the cabinet sitting held yesterday, there were differences of opinion, and the mobilization order was postponed.  This morning at four o’clock mobilization was ordered.

“The Russian army feels itself strong, and is full of enthusiasm.  The reorganization of the navy is still so incomplete that it would be out of the count in case of war.  For that reason England’s assurance of help was of the greatest consequence."[205]