As to guns and ammunition, “the number of heavy shells fired in the first week of the present offensive”—­says an official account—­“was nearly twice as great as it was in the first week of the Somme offensive, and in the second week it was 6-1/2 times as great as it was in the second week of the Somme offensive.  As a result of this great artillery fire, which had never been exceeded in the whole course of the war, a great saving of British life has been effected.”  And no praise can be too high for our gunners.  In a field where, two years ago, Germany had the undisputed predominance, we have now beaten her alike in the supply of guns and in the daring and efficiency of our gunners.

Nevertheless, let there be no foolish underestimate of the still formidable strength of the Germans.  The British and French missions will have brought to your Government all available information on this point.  There can be no doubt that a “wonderful” effort, as one of our Ministers calls it, has been made by Germany during the past winter.  She has mobilised all her people for the war as she has never done yet.  She has increased her munitions and put fresh divisions in the field.  The estimates of her present fighting strength given by our military writers and correspondents do not differ very much.

Colonel Repington, in The Times, puts the German fighting men on both fronts at 4,500,000, with 500,000 on the lines of communication, and a million in the German depots.  Mr. Belloc’s estimate is somewhat less, but not materially different.  Both writers agree that we are in presence of Germany’s last and greatest effort, that she has no more behind, and that if the Allies go on as they have begun—­and now with the help of America—­this summer should witness the fulfilment at least of that forecast which I reported to you in my earlier letters as so general among the chiefs of our Army in France—­i.e. “this year will see the war decided, but may not see it ended.”  Since I came home, indeed, more optimistic prophecies have reached me from France.  For some weeks after the American declaration of war, “We shall be home by Christmas!” was the common cry—­and amongst some of the best-informed.

But the Russian situation has no doubt:  reacted to some extent on these April hopes.  And it is clear that, during April and early May, under the stimulus of the submarine successes, German spirits have temporarily revived.  Never have the Junkers been more truculent, never have the Pan-Germans talked wilder nonsense about “annexation” and “indemnities.”  Until quite recently at any rate, the whole German nation—­except no doubt a cautious and intelligent few at the real sources of information—­believed that the submarine campaign would soon “bring England to her knees.”  They were so confident, that they ran the last great risk—­they brought America into the War!