The rest of the accord refers to the procedure for the issue of bonds guaranteed on the indicated payments, to the constitution of a guarantee committee, and to the date of payment.  Probably Germany will have been able to get through the year 1921 without insurmountable difficulties.

At Spa, on April 27, 1921, the proportionate sums assessed for each of the conquering powers were established on a total indemnity notably reduced in comparison with the earlier absurd demands.

But leaving alone the idea of an indemnity of 250, 150, or even 100 milliards of gold marks, it will be well to see in a concrete form what Germany can be made to pay, and whether the useless and elaborate structure of the Reparations Commission which, with its powers of regulating the internal life of Germany for thirty years or more, ought not to be substituted by a simpler formula more in sympathy with civilized notions.

Shortly before the War, according to successive statistics, the private wealth of France did not amount to more than 250 milliards.

The wealth of France, according to successive valuations, was calculated at 208 milliards of francs in 1905 (de Foville), at 214 milliards in 1908 (Turquan), at about 250 milliards according to other authors.  The wealth of Belgium, according to official statistics published by the Belgian Ministry of Finance in 1913, amounted to rather less than 30 milliards of francs.  The estimate is perhaps a trifle low.  But this official figure must not be considered as being a long way from the truth.  At certain moments Belgium’s demands have surpassed even the total of her national wealth, while the damages have not been more than some milliards.

The value of the land in France was calculated before the War at between 62 and 78 milliards; the value of the buildings, according to l’Annuaire Statistique de la France, at 59-1/2 milliards.  The territory occupied by the Germans is not more than a tenth of the national territory.  Even taking into consideration the loss of industrial buildings it is very difficult to arrive at the figure of 15 milliards.  At the same time it is true that the Minister Loucheur declared on February 17, 1919, in the French Chamber that the reconstruction of the devastated regions in France required 75 milliards—­that is, very much more than double the private wealth of all the inhabitants of all the occupied regions.

In all the demands for compensation of the various States we have seen not so much a real and precise estimate of the damages as a kind of fixing of credit in the largest measure possible in order that in the successive reductions each State should still have proportionally an advantageous position.

Making his calculation with a generosity which I assert to be excessive (and I assert this as a result of an accurate study of the question, which perhaps I may have occasion to publish), Keynes maintains that the damages for which Germany should be made to pay come to 53 milliards for all losses on land and sea and for the effects of aerial bombardments—­53 milliards of francs all told, including the damages of France, Great Britain, Italy, Belgium, Serbia, etc.!  I do not believe that the damages reach 40 milliards of gold marks, unless, of course, we calculate in them the pensions and allowances.